Observer Time: September 25, 2024
Helen is mature and strong. A tropical storm is expected to form late Wednesday, make landfall Thursday, and hit the Southeast on Friday. Here’s the latest news.
By Explanation
- Helen is near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.
- The storm is expected to become a tropical cyclone by late Wednesday.
- Helen will make landfall in Florida on Thursday evening, but the effects will be felt earlier.
- Life-threatening hurricanes, damaging winds, and heavy rain are all threats in Florida.
- Strong winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes will move into parts of the South on Friday.
Tropical Storm Helen is intensifying and is expected to become a major hurricane with severe storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rain before making landfall on the Florida coast on Thursday.
Helen’s influence on the beach never ends. Strong winds, torrential rain, and a few tornadoes will also spread to parts of the southeast this week.
So today here at Observer Time we will discuss and observe the news of the tropical storm warning.
Where now: Helen is tracking west about 45 miles east-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Sustained winds are at 65 mph.
Rain from the storm is drenching parts of Yucatan, Mexico, and western Cuba. At times the rain spread from north to south Florida.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
A tornado watch is in effect for the Great Bend of Florida west of Georgia, including Tallahassee. Flood warnings extend from Indian Pass south to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Bay.
As shown on the map below, multiple tropical storm warnings and tornado watches cover most of Florida from north to south Georgia and southern South Carolina.
These warnings mean that tornadoes, heat storms, and tornado conditions are expected (warning) or possible (watch) in these areas within the next 36 to 48 hours.
Those requiring warning areas should implement their tropical storm plans and follow the advice of local emergency managers.
Here’s the schedule:
– Wednesday: Center Helen approaches Cancun and Cozumel, with strong winds, storms, and heavy rain. Bands of heavy rain and strong winds will affect parts of western Cuba.
Helen eventually entered the southern Gulf of Mexico and increased in strength and size.
Some of the heavy, extraneous rain will reach parts of Florida, and tropical moisture blocking it will cause heavy, flooding rain across parts of the Tennessee Valley from Georgia to east of Tennessee.
– Thursday: Helen is expected to move into the eastern Atlantic before making landfall as a major hurricane Thursday evening along the Florida coast.
Although computer forecast models show large landfall reaching Florida’s Big Bend region or the Eastern Panhandle region, keep in mind that tropical storm effects (storms, winds, rain) will occur far from the center, especially in large tropical storms.
– Friday: Helen will move rapidly north over the southeastern Appalachians and Ohio Valley with strong, potentially damaging winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes.
How strong: Helen could reach hurricane strength in the Persian Gulf before making landfall.
This is because the cooling is good for strengthening, and the map below shows that there is a lot of deep, warm water in the western Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf. Of Mexico gyre.
According to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy, the Gulf of Mexico is very warm this time of year.
As a result, Helen continued to gain strength before reaching maximum strength on Thursday. Another factor to consider is wind shear.
Wind shear reduces or weakens tornadoes and tropical cyclones by tilting the circulation or blowing thunderstorms away from the core.
Low wind shear allows Helen to take advantage of deep, warm water. Some of the shears that have been raised may come close to land, but until then they are unlikely to affect a large, powerful tropical storm.
US Impacts
Helen is not only a hurricane, but it is very large and moves faster as it nears the coast and pushes ashore. As we discussed in the previous section, this affects the range and intensity of Helen’s effects.
Hurricane
The National Hurricane Center’s hurricane warning is shown on the map below. As you can see, most of Florida’s Gulf Coast is expected to see some hurricanes, including areas as far south as the Keys.
The highest hurricane is east of where Helen’s center will make landfall. Currently, Big Bend, Appalachian Bay, and the Florida coast.
Some tidal waves rise more than 10 feet above the ground in these areas, especially when the waves occur at high tide.
For Cedar Key, this is a record hurricane and is several feet taller than Idalia’s August 2023 hurricane (6.84 feet).
Due to Helen’s forecast high winds, tropical storm surge flooding is expected in the Tampa-St. The Pete-Sarasota metro area may have been more affected by Hurricane Idalia more than a year ago.
If you live near a beach, be sure to know your evacuation zone and follow the advice and instructions of your local emergency management.
Wind
As mentioned earlier, Helen is a large and fast hurricane in the Gulf and when plowing inland. This means that strong winds will cover a larger area than usual.
Hurricane-force winds may pass through parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast in areas covered by hurricane warnings, but strong winds may enter parts of North Florida and Georgia Southern Thursday afternoon.
Fallen trees and power outages are widespread in these areas and may cause structural damage.
Hurricane-force winds will quickly spread across the west coast of Florida and the Panhandle Thursday into Thursday night.
These severe tropical storms could be pushed across much of Georgia, eastern Alabama, and parts of the Carolinas Thursday night into Friday. Some downed trees and power outages are possible in these areas.
Rain
Helen is expected to produce heavy rain on the eastern side of her track, near the coast and inland in the southeastern Ohio Valley this week.
The heaviest rain is forecast for parts of the Southwest Thursday through Friday, but a few bands of heavy rain are ahead of Helen Wednesday in parts of the Southwest, including metro Atlanta.
Locally heavy rain will continue in parts of the Ohio Valley and Florida into Saturday.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible across the southeastern United States, with 15 inches possible. This rain can cause flooding and flooding.
High elevations in the southern Appalachians are particularly vulnerable to floods and landslides. A rare “high risk” forecast has been issued by NOAA’s Weather Forecast Center from northeast Georgia to western North Carolina.
The still-wet ground in the southeast caused Helen’s winds to topple trees.
Rainfall Forecast
Hurricane Fury
Many tropical storms make landfall to the right of the hurricane, or the east, because of where the center is tracking.
Parts of Florida, southeast Georgia, and southern and eastern South Carolina are prime areas for a few tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night.
A tornado may extend into eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia on Friday. Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has covered national and international weather since 1996. Extreme weather is one of his favorite topics.
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